Abstract for presentation at Spatial Sciences Institute International Biennial Conference

Climate change constitutes a serious and additional challenge for rural industries and communities. The wheat industry in the Northwest of Victoria (region) is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Current climate change scenarios provide little assistance to the farming community to make informed decisions on the seasonal basis. This paper presents improved methodology, models and frameworks to combine global and local climate change impacts and adaptations. Firstly, we develop a grains suitability analysis model for the region using Analytical Hierarchical Process. Secondly, we coupled CSIRO’s global atmosphere models with historical daily climate to provide future scenarios up to the year 2070. Potential impacts on wheat yield were evaluated with a crop simulation model and applied at one location in the region. Thirdly, the outputs were used to engage key stakeholders in the region in order to identify regional impacts and develop localised adaptation strategies. Insights from local decision-makers and stakeholders, literature and other source of information are used to develop an Adaptive Capacity Index to climate change in the region. We reached four major conclusions: (1) assuming a fixed sowing date under high CO2 emission scenario, contrary to what was expected, the wheat yield in the studied location may decrease between 25 and 29% by 2070. (2) The broad regional area suitability for may reduce between 22 and 27% by 2050. (3) While the suitability of growing grain is likely to shift southwards, the capacity varies across the region. Indicators such as social capital, management practices, education and knowledge, and economic wealth score high to enhance the community’s capacity to adapt to climate change. (4) It is demonstrated that climate change is one of the structural driving forces facing the region and that a range of mechanisms could be developed to inform policies and sustainable adaptations.